China and the world order

A place to bring a contemplative / Dharmic perspective and opinions to current events, politics and economics.
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Kim O'Hara
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China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:08 pm

This articulates something I've felt for a while ...
Mr Xi clearly wants to develop a Chinese ideology for the international order commensurate with China's growing influence. But he describes participation in global governance as an "achievement of the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". The strong nationalistic undercurrent is unlikely to have the same appeal as the values of the current order.

What should America's allies conclude? That a Chinese-led international order is unlikely to be liberal.

It is likely to be an order in which China's interests alone dictate outcomes unmitigated by rules; in which the strong do what they may and the weak suffer what they must; in which tribute rather than alliance determines treatment; and in which military force is used to advance commercial advantage.

In short, it would be the equivalent of America's early 20th-century policy of United Fruit and gunboat diplomacy in Latin America. This is not an international order in which Western sensibilities would prosper. ...

What is so astonishing about the potential demise of the liberal world order is the extent to which it is consensual: the West encouraged and incentivised China's rise, provided its markets, its technology and its capital, and supported China's inclusion in rule-setting. ...

Western governments waited, perhaps too long, and were admirably slow to conclude that China did not want success on Western terms, but wanted instead to establish Chinese terms for imposition onto first neighbours and then, building from that power base, onto the West itself.
:reading: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-03/ ... r/10568398

What happens next could be interesting. My feeling is that China, because of its centralised power structures, will deal more quickly and intelligently with changing circumstances than the West.
And change is certain. Either we will restructure the global economy in a very short time frame or climate change will do it for us - and it won't be nice.

:thinking:
Kim

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fwiw
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Re: China and the world order

Post by fwiw » Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:27 am

Kim O'Hara wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:08 pm
What should America's allies conclude? That a Chinese-led international order is unlikely to be liberal.
US-led international order wasn't liberal either. When France refused to follow the US in Irak because they knew WMDs were a lie, the Bush administration retaliated with punishing French imports to the USA for years. How is that any liberal? If you don't participate in our bs war, f you.


It is likely to be an order in which China's interests alone dictate outcomes unmitigated by rules; in which the strong do what they may and the weak suffer what they must; in which tribute rather than alliance determines treatment; and in which military force is used to advance commercial advantage.
I don't see how that would be any different. See the situation with Israel or Julian Assange where the USA oppose almost the entire rest of the world and still manage to use their influence to lock the situation in favor of their interests.


In short, it would be the equivalent of America's early 20th-century policy of United Fruit and gunboat diplomacy in Latin America. This is not an international order in which Western sensibilities would prosper. ...
When have the USA changed that policy? I just posted about a conservative pundit who called as late as last week for making the next generation of Pinochet style dictators start throwing people off helicopters again in order to force "free" markets onto countries (understand: corporate takeover of the entire economy).

It seems to me that the author lives in a bubble of complete naivety
... in my opinion

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Mon Dec 03, 2018 8:28 am

fwiw wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:27 am
Kim O'Hara wrote:
Sun Dec 02, 2018 10:08 pm
What should America's allies conclude? That a Chinese-led international order is unlikely to be liberal.
US-led international order wasn't liberal either. ...
It was "liberal" to the extent that it encouraged capitalism (yeah, I know that's problematic, but anyway) and democracy (sometimes).
Actually, perhaps the better way to describe it is to start over: it was self interested and against communism, but so long as those two objectives were met it supported capitalism and democracy. That's the glass-half-full version, of course.

I don't think it's possible to understand US policy of the 50s and 60s unless you realise, at gut level, just how threatening Communism seemed to be. In the 30-odd years from 1917 to 1950, it had taken over Russia, China and most of Eastern Europe and was fuelling revolutions in Africa and South America. Toss in Korea, the MAD doctrine and the Cuban missile crisis and you have a really toxic brew of paranoia in the "free world" - which is how it characterised itself.
By the 80s, when the wheels started falling off the Communist juggernaut, the US began to relax a bit - still going round stomping on nascent communist regimes, of course, but scaling back their internal witch-hunts and actually talking to communists as if they were real people. :jawdrop:
None of the above excuses the evils that any (make that "all") of the actors have perpetrated but the narrative has nuances which you seem not to recognise.
fwiw wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:27 am
It seems to me that the author lives in a bubble of complete naivety
That's a bit harsh - and just because he doesn't share your overwhelmingly negative view of the US. :tongue:

:namaste:
Kim

chownah
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Re: China and the world order

Post by chownah » Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:52 am

Fwiw's comment......
It seems to me that the author lives in a bubble of complete naivety
.......is of course hyperbolic but I would say that what it means is pretty much right on. To take this part from the article you brought.....
It is likely to be an order in which China's interests alone dictate outcomes unmitigated by rules; in which the strong do what they may and the weak suffer what they must; in which tribute rather than alliance determines treatment; and in which military force is used to advance commercial advantage.

In short, it would be the equivalent of America's early 20th-century policy of United Fruit and gunboat diplomacy in Latin America. This is not an international order in which Western sensibilities would prosper. ...
......and to think that the first paragraph is in any way different from the overwhelming majority of american policy with respect to expansion and foreign policy from day one and continuing to the present is to be either uninformed or naive or both......and to think that the american 20th century policies and diplomacy for latin america is indicative of something much worse then everything else that america has done is likewise uninformed, naive, or both. You could say that this is only opinion but really the facts which support this are smothering.

I think that the author of the article (based on only reading the excerpt which you brought) has gotten lost in discussion of international policy when in fact it seems that when he uses the term "liberal" (as in china is not and will not be 'liberal') I think that what can be said is that with regards to freedoms allowed to citizens the usofa is really quite remarkable in its policies of freedom of speech, press, movement, blah, and blah.....the list goes on. OF COURSE....with respect to people of color these freedoms were not allowed to slaves and to women and even after the slaves were no longer enslaved many people worked hard (and effectively) to deny them these freedoms.....but taking all the limitations with the providing of these freedoms historically I think that the freedoms allowed in america are really a few levels above what the chinese seem to want to offer.....and that really this is what the author is probably really meaning when he/she talks about being 'liberal'.
chownah

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Mon Dec 03, 2018 10:04 pm

chownah wrote:
Mon Dec 03, 2018 11:52 am
... taking all the limitations with the providing of these freedoms historically I think that the freedoms allowed in america are really a few levels above what the chinese seem to want to offer.....and that really this is what the author is probably really meaning when he/she talks about being 'liberal'.
chownah
And that's how I understood the author's usage of the word.
Now ...

:focus:

... let's get back to the topic, which was China, not the US.

:thanks:
Kim

chownah
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Re: China and the world order

Post by chownah » Tue Dec 04, 2018 1:41 am

chownah wrote: ↑
Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:52 pm
... taking all the limitations with the providing of these freedoms historically I think that the freedoms allowed in america are really a few levels above what the chinese seem to want to offer.....and that really this is what the author is probably really meaning when he/she talks about being 'liberal'.
chownah
.......and continuing onward (since it seems that some people don't see the connection with china) the author is worried that when china is the dominant power in the world it will not protect 'liberal' ideas like basic freedoms etc. This seems like a no brainer to me but then I'm really deluded....anyway even the idea that the chinese will not spread 'liberal' ideals around the world is not as starkly contrasting to american foreign policy if you look at some/many/most of the regimes that america has supported....need I make a list?....it will be long.....maybe another time. Please do remember that this post is about CHINA and how it will behave in the international scene....I only mention america as a tool to evaluate how and if what china will do will be a major change in the philosophy and practicality in the way the world is run.....and my estimate is that it will not be a major change in that in the usofa there will still be lots of 'liberal' freedoms offered to most people and in china there will not be alot of 'liberal' freedoms offered to most people and in the rest of the world it will be pretty much the same.....so....again I am discussing CHINA and what change it will effect (in my view not much) on the world scene.
chownah

Nicholas
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Nicholas » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:40 pm

Domination and control of others is an ugly but persistent feature of human individuals & societies, China is just the latest. The Huawei telecom group is one of the most obvious tentacles of the Communists:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/eu-offici ... 82959.html

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:17 pm

Nicholas wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:40 pm
Domination and control of others is an ugly but persistent feature of human individuals & societies, China is just the latest. The Huawei telecom group is one of the most obvious tentacles of the Communists:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/eu-offici ... 82959.html
I'm not saying you're wrong, Nicholas, but I think we must consider that your source has an explicit ant-communist-Chinese bias:
Politico wrote: The Epoch Times is actually a big publication. It is an international paper that prints in 33 countries and 17 languages, including Ukrainian, Bulgarian and Slovak, and calls New York its center.

Established by followers of Falun Gong, the paper is now an odd fact of New York life, present but not really accounted for. Its New York-area circulation is 35,000 weekly for the English version and 105,000 weekly for the Chinese-language edition ...

The Epoch Times is a privately held company whose mission is, in part, to "uphold universal human values, rights, and freedoms."

That philosophical outlook is born of its ties to Falun Gong, which is, as described on its website, “a spiritual practice that consists of gentle exercises and postures, combined with a meditation component.” Practitioners of the movement in China are persecuted there by the government, which regards Falun Gong as a dangerous cult. This has made the Falun Gong a bitter opponent of all things that are perceived to have anything to do with Communism. ...
https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... rag-067223

:coffee:
Kim

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Re: China and the world order

Post by Nicholas » Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:11 pm

Kim,

What better sources than those who have suffered under Communism? Far better than academics & arm chair experts.

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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:26 am

Nicholas wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:11 pm
Kim,

What better sources than those who have suffered under Communism? Far better than academics & arm chair experts.
Hi, Nicholas,
That's really a question for the "Where should we get our news?" thread - viewtopic.php?f=11&t=184 - but the short answer is that anyone with a bias (either for or against) about the subject of a news item is likely to slant or exaggerate their reporting to suit their bias. In extreme cases, they will lie outright, or even invent a whole story. That makes them unreliable sources.
On the other hand, their bias is also a motivating factor which may lead them to investigate and report on issues which more 'neutral' sources don't bother with.

:juggling:

My rule is to cross-check news from minor/biased/amateur sources with more mainstream sources, and I encourage you to do the same.

:namaste:
Kim

:focus:

Nicholas
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CCP a Mortal Danger

Post by Nicholas » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:08 am

Too bad this focus of USA policy wonks was not there many decades ago:

https://presentdangerchina.org/guiding-principles/

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:50 am

In the news recently -
China hails 'historic' Europe trip as Xi signs billion-dollar deals with France, BRI with Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping is wrapping up his overseas jaunt of the year, visiting Europe on a mission to strengthen Beijing's ties to the region.

The trip was described as being of "historic significance" to China, according to state media, with the country's powerful leader visiting Italy, France and Monaco and signing a series of multi-billion-dollar deals over the past few days.

But one aspect of Mr Xi's trip has Western observers and European allies particularly concerned — Italy's decision to sign up to Beijing's controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as more than two dozen other trade and infrastructure agreements.

The Chinese Government is inviting world leaders to Beijing to sell them its hugely ambitious, signature One Belt One Road project.
In doing so, Italy has become the first Group of Seven nation — which includes powerful economies like the UK, the USA, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada — to join the initiative, which was previously rejected by most Western countries, including Australia. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/ ... s/10935476

China seems intent on taking over from the US as de facto world superpower. I don't welcome that, but I can't see the US under Trump being able to do any to slow them down.

:coffee:
Kim

Pseudobabble
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Pseudobabble » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:52 pm

Kim O'Hara wrote:
Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:26 am
Nicholas wrote:
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:11 pm
Kim,

What better sources than those who have suffered under Communism? Far better than academics & arm chair experts.
Hi, Nicholas,
That's really a question for the "Where should we get our news?" thread - viewtopic.php?f=11&t=184 - but the short answer is that anyone with a bias (either for or against) about the subject of a news item is likely to slant or exaggerate their reporting to suit their bias. In extreme cases, they will lie outright, or even invent a whole story. That makes them unreliable sources.
On the other hand, their bias is also a motivating factor which may lead them to investigate and report on issues which more 'neutral' sources don't bother with.

:juggling:

My rule is to cross-check news from minor/biased/amateur sources with more mainstream sources, and I encourage you to do the same.

:namaste:
Kim

:focus:
Lets be honest - there is no such thing as unbiased reporting. Even if you take the most factual outlets like Reuters, there is still the selection of what is worth reporting on, making all news the result of somebody's selective judgement.

Pseudobabble
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Pseudobabble » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:59 pm

Kim O'Hara wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:50 am
In the news recently -
China hails 'historic' Europe trip as Xi signs billion-dollar deals with France, BRI with Italy

Chinese President Xi Jinping is wrapping up his overseas jaunt of the year, visiting Europe on a mission to strengthen Beijing's ties to the region.

The trip was described as being of "historic significance" to China, according to state media, with the country's powerful leader visiting Italy, France and Monaco and signing a series of multi-billion-dollar deals over the past few days.

But one aspect of Mr Xi's trip has Western observers and European allies particularly concerned — Italy's decision to sign up to Beijing's controversial Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), as well as more than two dozen other trade and infrastructure agreements.

The Chinese Government is inviting world leaders to Beijing to sell them its hugely ambitious, signature One Belt One Road project.
In doing so, Italy has become the first Group of Seven nation — which includes powerful economies like the UK, the USA, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada — to join the initiative, which was previously rejected by most Western countries, including Australia. ...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/ ... s/10935476

China seems intent on taking over from the US as de facto world superpower. I don't welcome that, but I can't see the US under Trump being able to do any to slow them down.

:coffee:
Kim
It has nothing to do with Trump, and everything to do with the relative compositions of the US and Chinese economies, in addition to other factors like population size, educational focus, etc

Nicholas
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Nicholas » Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:12 pm

Communism as practiced was and is inhuman.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tiananmen- ... ars-later/

Nicholas
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Nicholas » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:20 pm

Another view of Chinese protests in 1989 and the massacre of some protesters:

https://blog.independent.org/2019/06/03 ... -massacre/

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Kim O'Hara » Wed Jun 05, 2019 3:20 am

Coverage of anniversary commemorations in Hong Kong - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... kong-vigil

:namaste:
Kim

Nicholas
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Re: China and the world order

Post by Nicholas » Thu Aug 08, 2019 10:16 pm

Tibetan turncoats get a raise in pay from the Reds:

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/tibet/ ... 70949.html

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