Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:20 am

“Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, presented at the AGU last Monday–this is the seventh annual issue analyzing extreme weather events of the prior year. This article posted by Dr. Jeff Masters with Bob Henson, Weather Underground, Cat 6.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Seven ... at6-widget

Human-caused climate change made more than a dozen of 2017’s most extreme weather events more likely and more intense, including seven billion-dollar disasters, according to the Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 From a Climate Perspective report, released on Monday. The report added that marine heat waves, like the one in the Tasman Sea off Australia’s southeast coast, were “virtually impossible” without the influence of human-caused climate change.

“These attribution studies are telling us that a warming Earth is continuing to send us new and more extreme weather events every year,” said Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) editor-in-chief Jeff Rosenfield at a press conference on Monday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in Washington D.C. ...
:reading: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... /#comments comment 7.

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Fri Dec 21, 2018 5:00 pm

Climate System Tipping Points from Cascading Feedbacks: 1 of 2 with Paul Beckwith:



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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by fwiw » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:57 pm

... in my opinion

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:47 am

This one is especially for those in the NE of America who are feeling very cold -
RealClimate wrote:The main points there are that [a Gulf Stream} slowdown leads to a particular fingerprint pattern in sea surface temperature change – which is basically what Dima and Lohmann already identified, and this pattern is predicted by high-resolution climate models in response to rising greenhouse gases, and it is also found in the observations. There is no known alternative explanation for what might cause this fingerprint. That fingerprint is not subtle: it is so strong that the subpolar Atlantic is the world’s only region which has resisted global warming over the past hundred years and even has cooled down, reaching record low temperatures in 2015 when the globe as a whole was record-hot.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... -slowdown/

Someone should tell Trump.

:stir:

(BTW, I'm writing this in downtime created by a once-in-ten-years rain event. Some people just up the road have broken rainfall records which go back 120 years. Repeat after me: Extreme weather events are made more likely by climate change.)

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Fri Feb 01, 2019 5:26 am

This one is for folks living near sea level ...
NASA wrote:A gigantic cavity — two-thirds the area of Manhattan and almost 1,000 feet (300 meters) tall — growing at the bottom of Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica is one of several disturbing discoveries reported in a new NASA-led study of the disintegrating glacier. The findings highlight the need for detailed observations of Antarctic glaciers' undersides in calculating how fast global sea levels will rise in response to climate change.

Researchers expected to find some gaps between ice and bedrock at Thwaites' bottom where ocean water could flow in and melt the glacier from below. The size and explosive growth rate of the newfound hole, however, surprised them. It's big enough to have contained 14 billion tons of ice, and most of that ice melted over the last three years.

"We have suspected for years that Thwaites was not tightly attached to the bedrock beneath it," said Eric Rignot of the University of California, Irvine, and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Rignot is a co-author of the new study, which was published today in Science Advances. "Thanks to a new generation of satellites, we can finally see the detail," he said. ...

About the size of Florida, Thwaites Glacier is currently responsible for approximately 4 percent of global sea level rise. It holds enough ice to raise the world ocean a little over 2 feet (65 centimeters) and backstops neighboring glaciers that would raise sea levels an additional 8 feet (2.4 meters) if all the ice were lost. [emphasis added]
:reading: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/huge-c ... apid-decay

My own local weather event (see previous post) is now a once-in-twenty-year-event. :thinking:

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Sun Feb 03, 2019 11:24 pm

Our Climate in 2030 to Most-Closely Resemble Climate of 3 Million Years Ago.



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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:18 am

We have known for some years that, on average, our world is getting hotter because of greenhouse gas emissions, and for a while the preferred term for the phenomenon was, logically enough, "Global Warming" or, since we also knew we were responsible, "Anthropogenic Global Warming" - AGW. But our AGW is so uneven that there are spots where the term doesn't fit - they might be getting colder winters, for instance - so "Climate Change" has been used to cover the whole range of effects.
It turns out that the same is true of AGW-driven "Sea Level Rise", a genuine and serious problem. It's not simple and it's quite uneven, and the experts are starting to call it "Sea Level Change" to cover the exceptions. Coastal cities are still going under water, of course, but not all at the same rate. Here's a good explanation. The focus is not as narrowly Nordic as the headline suggests, and the science is fascinating.
The mind-bending physics of Scandinavian sea-level change

Global sea level is rising. In fact between 1850 and 2006 it rose on average 24 centimetres. Almost half of this came from ice loss in the Arctic and, of course, more is expected in the coming years.

Exactly how much the average global sea level will rise in the future will depend on our greenhouse gas emissions. According to the recent Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic report, if we reduce emissions roughly in line with the Paris Agreement, we would see an additional 54 centimeters of global sea level rise by 2100. Doing nothing would lead to 74 centimeters in that time.

But whatever happens, rising seas will not be felt evenly across the globe. Some parts of the world are already seeing the lapping at their shores well before others.

And when you look into the numbers, you begin to see some truly mind-bending and counter-intuitive trends. For example, ice loss in far-off West Antarctica will have more profound impacts in Scandinavia than it will in nearby Australia, while right now melting Alaskan glaciers contribute more to sea-level rise in the Baltic than the Greenland ice sheet.

What on Earth is going on? And what does the future hold for our coastal communities? ...
:reading: http://sciencenordic.com/mind-bending-p ... vel-change

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:35 pm

Paul Beckwith talks about the Tibetan Plateau in this video:


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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:17 pm

This turned up in my FB feed -
U.S. farmers face devastation following Midwest floods
Humeyra Pamuk, P.J. Huffstutter, Tom Polansek

WINSLOW, Neb./CHICAGO (Reuters) - Midwestern farmers have been gambling they could ride out the U.S.-China trade war by storing their corn and soybeans anywhere they could - in bins, plastic tubes, in barns or even outside.

Now, the unthinkable has happened. Record floods have devastated a wide swath of the Farm Belt across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and several other states. Early estimates of lost crops and livestock are approaching $1 billion in Nebraska alone. With more flooding expected, damages are expected to climb much higher for the region.

As river levels rose, spilling over levees and swallowing up townships, farmers watched helplessly as the waters consumed not only their fields, but their stockpiles of grain, the one thing that can stand between them and financial ruin.

“I’ve never seen anything like this in my life,” said Tom Geisler, a farmer in Winslow ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN1R12J0

My FB friend's comment was, "How many times do climate change deniers need to hear the words “unprecedented, record-breaking and catastrophic” in a 5 year timeframe to pause and wonder whether the eminent scientists might actually be right?"

:thinking:
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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:23 pm

Meanwhile in Africa -
Cyclone Idai shows the deadly reality of climate change in Africa

As Africa climate week unfurls in Ghana, the countries of Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe count the costs of Cyclone Idai, which ripped through villages and towns, taking hundreds of lives and leaving a trail of destruction.

For a continent already racked by the effects of the climate crisis, Idai is another chilling reminder of the destructive power of the kind of storms that will become more common as the world warms up.

The cyclone made landfall on 14 March, the same day that the One Planet Summit started in Nairobi, called by French president Emmanuel Macron. After picking up speed, with winds of 195km/h (120mph) accompanied by lashing rains, Idai caused flooding and landslides, ruining crops and roads, and has already affected millions of people. The city of Beira in Mozambique was hit the hardest, with nearly 80% of homes and public infrastructure destroyed.

While the most vulnerable communities are facing the real impact of climate change on the ground, national leaders at the One Planet Summit kept their talk inside comfortable and acclimatised rooms. During the summit, Macron encouraged global collaboration towards ensuring sustainable preservation of forests...
:reading: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ssil-fuels

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Dorje Shedrub » Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:32 pm

Food prices in US are rising and with the floods, will likely rise much more. I eat a lot of cabbage and the price per pound has jumped at least 30 cents. Meat prices have jumped too. Its almost cheaper to eat unhealthy fast food than to cook healthy. This really hits the poor. If we have a drought like we did a few years ago . . . I

We may need to revive the WW II concept of victory gardens, except most people have no time to garden any longer.

DS
"As far as social economic theory is concerned, I am Marxist. " ~ HHDL

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:34 am

Dorje Shedrub wrote:
Mon Mar 25, 2019 11:32 pm
Food prices in US are rising and with the floods, will likely rise much more. I eat a lot of cabbage and the price per pound has jumped at least 30 cents. Meat prices have jumped too. Its almost cheaper to eat unhealthy fast food than to cook healthy. This really hits the poor. If we have a drought like we did a few years ago . . . I

We may need to revive the WW II concept of victory gardens, except most people have no time to garden any longer.

DS
Resilience is going to be a key concept in all this.
Anything centralised fails catastrophically if it fails, and local food production is insurance against another drought in California or hurricane in Guatemala.
The same applies to power generation (put solar panels on your roof!) and many other necessities.

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Sat Apr 06, 2019 4:06 am

One for American friends ...
U.S. Air Force bases caught off guard by climate change

Greg Brudnicki, mayor of Panama City, Florida, has lived in the community for 55 years and said he has never seen a storm like Hurricane Michael. The cyclone barreled through the Florida panhandle in October, flattening beach neighborhoods and piling 20 years’ worth of debris on Panama City alone.

Tyndall Air Force Base, located 12 miles east of the city, provides more than 30 percent of the city’s economy, Brudnicki says, and, like much of the surrounding area, it was completely decimated by Michael.

“It just looked like somebody went through and kicked down all the buildings,” said Brudnicki, who toured the base shortly after the storm. “It looked like missiles came in and blew the place up.” ...

Tyndall is just one of several military bases hit by extreme weather in the past year, and the high cost of repairs foreshadows a major upcoming problem for the U.S. military. Last week, the Air Force announced that it was seeking $5 billion for repairs to two bases following recent extreme weather events, Tyndall and Nebraska’s Offutt Air Force Base. ...

Even as the military contends with the very real costs of climate change, the Trump administration continues to deny that rising temperatures pose a security threat. Over the past few months, the administration has been working behind the scenes to form a National Security Council panel stacked with climate deniers, which reports suggest is intended to challenge established science. The administration’s plans have been met with widespread opposition from former military officials, security experts, and climate scientists. ...
:reading: https://thinkprogress.org/climate-chang ... 9ea179316/

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:04 am

Trouble in the Arctic means trouble for the rest of the world.



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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:18 am

This is extreme weather which (as I've been saying for a few year now) is the really attention-grabbing aspect of climate change.
Europe braces for 40 degree temperatures as forecasters warn of 'unprecedented' heatwave

...Spain’s meteorological agency Aemet issued a “yellow alert” for severe weather on Sunday, and says it expects to see a “hotter than usual” summer like last year.

In Germany, forecasters are predicting temperatures of up to 37 degrees Celsius on Tuesday and 38 degrees on Wednesday, with similar heat also expected in Belgium and Switzerland.

Meanwhile, the British Met Office said it was particularly concerned that the heatwave could trigger “violent storms” and warned Britons to expect “hot, humid and unstable” weather.

Greece will be one of the countries most affected by the heatwave, with temperatures hitting as high as 39 degrees Celsius this weekend.

And in France, meteorologist Francois Gourand said the heatwave is “unprecedented for the month of June” and will no doubt beat previous heat records.

It will recall the summer of 2003, when the country suffered an intense heatwave that led to the deaths of nearly 15,000 mostly elderly people. ...
:reading: https://www.thejournal.ie/weather-europ ... 9-Jun2019/

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:30 am

Kim O'Hara wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:18 am
This is extreme weather which (as I've been saying for a few year now) is the really attention-grabbing aspect of climate change.
Europe braces for 40 degree temperatures as forecasters warn of 'unprecedented' heatwave

...Spain’s meteorological agency Aemet issued a “yellow alert” for severe weather on Sunday, and says it expects to see a “hotter than usual” summer like last year.

In Germany, forecasters are predicting temperatures of up to 37 degrees Celsius on Tuesday and 38 degrees on Wednesday, with similar heat also expected in Belgium and Switzerland.

Meanwhile, the British Met Office said it was particularly concerned ...
It will recall the summer of 2003, when the country suffered an intense heatwave that led to the deaths of nearly 15,000 mostly elderly people. ...
:reading: https://www.thejournal.ie/weather-europ ... 9-Jun2019/

:namaste:
Kim
Well, it happened. Now the explainer - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-03/ ... e/11253798, with some beautifully clear diagrams of the weather patterns and some scary charts.
As Europe recovers from a heatwave with temperatures impressive even by Australian standards, there's one big issue on everyone's lips — climate change.

But attributing an event to climate change is a complicated business, especially when the jet stream is involved.

How has the 'omega' jet stream influenced events and was climate change to blame? ...

[However] without a specific attribution study, it was not possible to categorically link this spell of hot weather to man-made climate change.

Climate change attribution studies use highly complex computer models to compare the world that is, with what it would have been without human-induced greenhouse gasses.

These can then say how much more or less likely an event would be with human-induced climate change.

According to Ms Maxley, an attribution study completed after the 2018 heatwave in the UK showed that the probability of a similar event was now 30 times more likely than in 1750, when the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was far lower prior to the industrial revolution.

"UK climate projects show that with little or no mitigation to counteract climate change, the probability of a heatwave event like we saw last summer in the UK increases to around 50 per cent by 2050," Ms Maxley said.

A study after the 2003 heatwave in France, which killed an estimated 15,000 people, suggested it was twice as likely due to human influence. Another suggested that even in a future with limited warming, summers like 2003 would be expected 59 per cent of the time.

Official attribution studies for this event are just commencing.

But if I was in Europe, with the traditionally warmest two months of summer still to go, I wouldn't wait to invest in an energy-efficient fan.
:thinking:
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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Wed Jul 03, 2019 4:17 pm

An interview with Paul Beckwith (https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith) on Radio Ecoshock:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0TNUNu1P-w

Kevin...

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Kim O'Hara » Sun Jul 07, 2019 3:14 am

What climate scientists are talking about - statistics, event attribution, better modelling of regional climates ...
The International Meeting on Statistical Climatology

“The weather forecast looks sunny and particularly hot from Sunday to Friday, with afternoon temperatures above 30°C every day, and likely exceeding 35°C by the middle of the week. One consequence is that the poster sessions (Tuesday and Thursday) have been moved to the morning as they will be held outside under a marquee.”

I have never received a notification like this before a conference. And it was then followed up by a warning from the Guardian: ‘Hell is coming’: week-long heatwave begins across Europe. The heatwave took place and was an appropriate frame for the International meeting on statistical climatology (IMSC), which took place in Toulouse, France (June 24-28). France set a new record-high temperature 45.9°C on June 28th, beating the previous record 44.1°C from 2003 by a wide margin (1.8°C).

One of the topics of this meeting was indeed heatwaves and one buzzword was “event attribution”. It is still difficult to say whether a single event is more likely as a result of climate change because of model inaccuracies when it comes to local and regional details.

Weather and climate events tend to be limited geographically and involve very local processes. Climate models, however, tend to be designed to reproduce more large-scale features, and their output is not exactly the same as observed quantity. Hence, there is often a need for downscaling global climate model results in order to explain such events. ...

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the emerging pattern of more extremes that we see is a result of the ongoing global warming. Indeed, the results presented at the IMSC provide further support for the link between climate change and extremes ...
:reading: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... imatology/

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:30 am

A nice interview with climatologist James Hansen:



The interviewer asks a lot of good questions.

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Re: Climate science and statistics - omnibus thread

Post by Virgo » Mon Jul 08, 2019 3:33 pm

Warmer water supports the spread of dangerous bacterias:



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