Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

A place to bring a contemplative / Dharmic perspective and opinions to current events, politics and economics.
Post Reply
SarathW
Posts: 176
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:27 pm

Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by SarathW » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:28 pm

Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue worldwide?

Some people doubt the current hype on Coronavirus and they think it is a scam.

Dan74
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Dan74 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:57 pm

SarathW wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:28 pm
Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue worldwide?

Some people doubt the current hype on Coronavirus and they think it is a scam.
There have been many studies and comparisons. I have stopped following closely about two months ago, but around that time there was the following chart published that shows the comparison of deaths in the last 5 years, where we can compare the recent number of deaths with the projected deaths (the grey band showing statistical uncertainty) for a bunch of countries. The previous peaks correspond to several bad seasonal flu waves and also a heat wave. The orange line represents a statistically strong increase.
96588856_1994943707304357_9010691569958780928_o.jpg
96588856_1994943707304357_9010691569958780928_o.jpg (148.51 KiB) Viewed 397 times
The article the chart is from is here: https://www.nzz.ch/briefing/archiv/was- ... -ld.154277

It is not a scam.

Of course the victims are mostly old people whose life was often not shortened by a huge amount. This will probably lead to lower mortality in the months/years ahead. Nevertheless it is certainly not only the people on their death beds.

Bundokji
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Bundokji » Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:58 am

We are still at the beginning of the pandemic, and one would have assumed that with all the scientific and technological advancements humans achieved during the last 100 years or so, we would have better understanding of the virus by now. Maybe health experts became more skillful in managing the cases and are working on developing a vaccine, but the real impact (including the death toll) remains to be seen.

The skepticism about the virus might not be technically accurate as it is indeed a contributing cause of death, but by and large, the world cared more about being technically accurate than providing a proper context of which action can be analyzed and assessed. For example, it will never be known to what extent the lockdown contributed to social unrest and demonstrations in the US, and to what extent these demonstrations have caused the recent resurgence in the number of cases there. This is only one example. Another example is that we are witnessing an increasing number of cases worldwide and at the same time there is an easing of health measures and a gradual return to an old norm. It becomes legitimate for people to become skeptical about the whole thing. Coronavirus can be a hoax in many different ways, the number of deaths is not one of them.

Using death as a criteria to measure impact is convenient. All you ave to do is to count dead bodies who had coronavirus and keep on updating the public. The real impact of this method on the overall quality of life as well as triggering other causes of death will never be known.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.

User avatar
lyndon taylor
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:30 pm
Location: US occupied Northern Mexico

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by lyndon taylor » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:04 am

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

this is the best one know of

this ones great for testing numbers

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
18 years ago I made one of the most important decisions of my life and entered a local Cambodian Buddhist Temple as a temple boy and, for only 3 weeks, an actual Therevada Buddhist monk.

http://trickleupeconomictheory.blogspot.com/

User avatar
mikenz66
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Location: Aotearoa, New Zealand

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by mikenz66 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:48 am

Bundokji wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:58 am
It becomes legitimate for people to become skeptical about the whole thing.
Countries like Taiwan who were not skeptical of technical knowledge and acted early and effectively managed to avoid much of the disruption, overflowing hospitals, and so on that we saw in countries under a skeptical leadership.

:heart:
Mike

Bundokji
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Bundokji » Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:29 am

mikenz66 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 7:48 am
Bundokji wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 6:58 am
It becomes legitimate for people to become skeptical about the whole thing.
Countries like Taiwan who were not skeptical of technical knowledge and acted early and effectively managed to avoid much of the disruption, overflowing hospitals, and so on that we saw in countries under a skeptical leadership.

:heart:
Mike
My country also managed to have very low number of cases, but this is not the skepticism i was referring to. A more legitimate cause for skepticism would be to what extent this approach is sustainable considering that countries with lower cases can be more vulnerable in the long run. Countries that developed higher degrees of immunity can be closer to recovery. Another cause for skepticism would be how strict measures can lead to social unrest, and how during social unrest, health can become at the bottom of people's priorities when they act.

Skepticism can be more far reaching than the mere number of deaths and/or infections as we know it. The accusations between the WHO and Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell is an interesting case:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieport ... 8c03c36d54

In my mind, the overly technical approach to the virus is more concerned with justifying certain policies than honestly addressing the complexity of the human situation. It pushes even more towards alienating death from public life, and the most likely result would be either hysterical panic or carelessness. Where i live, people were overly fearful at the beginning, and currently, they are overly careless. From blind belief in the official rhetoric to interpreting the whole thing as a hoax they turned very quickly. I really hope that the number of cases will remain low and under control, but i doubt it, and even if it happens, i see it more as "luck" than well-planned policy.

The role of ideology in justifying policies and the manipulation of numbers cannot be underestimated. The same people who shed skepticism about the GDP being an accurate measure of human well-being and/or the share market as a measure of the overall health of the economy are emphasizing the technical approach to COVID-19 as the right approach. The same people who supported and called for the lockdown went en masse to the crowded streets demonstrating for social justice and the demolition of statues.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.

User avatar
mikenz66
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Location: Aotearoa, New Zealand

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by mikenz66 » Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:35 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 8:29 am
My country also managed to have very low number of cases, but this is not the skepticism i was referring to. A more legitimate cause for skepticism would be to what extent this approach is sustainable considering that countries with lower cases can be more vulnerable in the long run. Countries that developed higher degrees of immunity can be closer to recovery. Another cause for skepticism would be how strict measures can lead to social unrest, and how during social unrest, health can become at the bottom of people's priorities when they act.
Well, as I understand it, none of the countries that experienced overloaded hospitals are close to herd immunity, and most of them are still experiencing severe disruption, whereas Taiwan, New Zealand, and others, are close to normal (apart from overseas travel, of course).

Of course, the understanding of the technicalities are rapidly changing, and in this sort of complex situation one would not expect all scientists to agree - that's exactly how science progresses.

Your last point about social unrest is important. Skill in communicating challenging issues to the public are a key part of good leadership. In New Zealand, and, I gather, Taiwan, etc, the communication was such that the vast majority were clear about what and why we were doing. Of course, noone would claim all of the actions and communication was perfect, but we didn't have demonstrations against lockdowns, for example.

This is much easier to achieve in a small country like NZ or Taiwan, and much more difficult in a large country like the US, with multiple levels of governance.

Nevertheless, I would say that it is not enough to have good technical advice, if communication with the public is poor.

:heart:
Mike

User avatar
DNS
Site Admin
Posts: 765
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 12:49 am
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, Estados Unidos de América
Contact:

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by DNS » Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:23 pm

Taiwan has done very well with the crisis, but as you say they are a smaller nation than the U.S.



Notice their success was done without closures; primarily just banning travel and everyone using masks.

Bundokji
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Bundokji » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 am

mikenz66 wrote:
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:35 pm
Well, as I understand it, none of the countries that experienced overloaded hospitals are close to herd immunity, and most of them are still experiencing severe disruption, whereas Taiwan, New Zealand, and others, are close to normal (apart from overseas travel, of course).
The example you provided about herd immunity can be one of the reasons why people are getting skeptical. In the news, we hear about some countries such as the US and the UK that is reporting thousands of new cases and deaths on a daily basis. When the numbers are big enough to make news headlines, but not big enough to bring these nations closer to herd immunity, then this might raise questions about numbers manipulation and how rhetoric can be changed in a blink of an eye.

To provide another example is Egypt. At the beginning of the outbreak, the virus was presented as a scary thing. Stories about individuals who were skeptical about the dangers of the virus and then got infected and died were all over the news as a warning how deluded certain individuals can be. When the numbers of new infections became in the thousands every day, the rhetoric began to change to tell people that the virus is something we need to learn how to live with and sharing reports and stories that it is not as bad as it was initially thought. The change in rhetoric coincided with easing of restrictions when the number of new cases was on the rise. Now, a number of the worst hit countries in the middle east including Egypt, Saudi and UAE are planning to open their borders and airlines will begin to operate soon. How would you convince the ordinary person who was asked to stay at home and to lose his job that there was not anything fishy in the way things were presented to them at the outset.

In contrast to the above, the government of Jordan yesterday declared a two weeks suspension of a program allowing Jordanian nationals who got stuck abroad to return home. The justification was that quarantine facilities are currently almost full. This is what i had in mind when i said initial success in controlling the spread of the virus makes countries more vulnerable, as vulnerability is based on the belief that you have something to lose, and when one believes that he has something to lose, the mind becomes fixated on protecting that thing and easily overlooking the associated costs/risks of adopting this mindset.
Of course, the understanding of the technicalities are rapidly changing, and in this sort of complex situation one would not expect all scientists to agree - that's exactly how science progresses.
Indeed, the complexity of the situation cannot be addressed by giving a louder voice to health experts and holding policy making hostage to their opinions. In the original article i shared about accusations between the WHO and Anders Tegnell which i read on the BBC, Mr. Tegneli indicated that its too soon to make conclusions. For example, it is too soon to know which countries will fare better in the long run, the ones that are currently witnessing higher numbers of infections or the ones who have zero new cases.

In general, the desire to control and the alienation of death from public life prevented the world from knowing the real mortality rate of the virus. You have countries where mortality rate is almost 10% and other countries with less than 1%. Also the exaggeration of human achievements in science in technology might have had an impact on how people are currently perceiving the whole thing. Many would have expected that with the advancement in science and technology, the world should have figured out by now how to deal with the virus and eliminate it unless something fishy is going on.
Your last point about social unrest is important. Skill in communicating challenging issues to the public are a key part of good leadership. In New Zealand, and, I gather, Taiwan, etc, the communication was such that the vast majority were clear about what and why we were doing. Of course, noone would claim all of the actions and communication was perfect, but we didn't have demonstrations against lockdowns, for example.
Also probably the level of trust in the leadership makes people more accepting of national policies. There is always an element of uncertainty in decision making, but it is rare for decision makers to expect people to change their behaviors, life style and livelihood based on high level of uncertainty and ambiguity. The universality of issues related to sickness, old age and death can weaken the ability of central authorities to persuade people to adhere to national policies such as in the case of COVID-19. When both the decision maker and the ordinary citizen are equally subject to these risks, the element of authority in making the rhetoric more persuasive can be easily eroded with time as the issues in hand are subject to time, People in lockdown might have contemplated: if i avoid this disease, i might encounter another one. How long should the lives of the elders be superficially prolonged? Don't we take the risk of dying when we leave our homes everyday to seek livelihood, or is there anything more to life than avoiding death?
This is much easier to achieve in a small country like NZ or Taiwan, and much more difficult in a large country like the US, with multiple levels of governance.
Prior to COVID-19, who would have thought that governance had such huge influence in relation to life and death? It might have also revealed limitations in relation to certain ideals such as democracy. Chinese iron fist in governing its people might have contributed to its swift control of the virus, while certain western ideals that focuses on individual freedom became a negative in that sense. This what happens when an isolated phenomena such as the coronavirus becomes a criteria to assess things including governance.
Nevertheless, I would say that it is not enough to have good technical advice, if communication with the public is poor.
Agreed, especially when these issues are related to sickness, old age and death. When all are equally vulnerable to the three messengers, honesty is preferable to authority in my opinion.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.

Dan74
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Dan74 » Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:09 pm

I don't see any need for conspiratorial thinking (leaving aside the exact origin for the moment). What transpired is understandable in terms of the novelty of the disease, the rapid spread with the resulting fear of overloading the health system and the worry about the economic impact.

The spread is obviously very sensitive to the population density and behaviour, such as mobility, hygiene (also at hospitals) and distancing. Mortality is also highly variable it appears, possibly due to the age and overall health of the population and standard of medical care, but also and perhaps even more significantly, due to the wide variability in the protocols for recording the cause of death.

I am still quite puzzled that here in Switzerland we have so far managed to avoid very large numbers as compared to our immediate neighbours in Italy and France, millions of whom commuted to Switzerland for work. I assume it was due to the lockdown and that the population adhered to the measures rather well.

User avatar
Nicholas
Posts: 254
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:07 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Nicholas » Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:19 pm

I think I saw this number on CNN this morning - the world number of cases from the CCP virus is now about 10 million people. This number includes deaths and recovered cases, so actual deaths would be even less. Sounds horrid and impressive, right?

The present world population is about 7,800 millions. Ten million = .00128 percent. Hardly a ripple...
May all seek, find and follow the Path of Buddhas.

User avatar
mikenz66
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Location: Aotearoa, New Zealand

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by mikenz66 » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:19 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:53 am
Nevertheless, I would say that it is not enough to have good technical advice, if communication with the public is poor.
Agreed, especially when these issues are related to sickness, old age and death. When all are equally vulnerable to the three messengers, honesty is preferable to authority in my opinion.
Yes, we agree on this. But honesty includes making sure one has as good as possible technical data, not just relying on some hunch that things are not so bad, or so good, or whatever...

If we were talking about, say, regulations for the safety of airplanes or automobiles I don't think we'd have the level of skepticism. "Those engineers are just too worried about metal fatigue - it's not really a problem..."
Luckily, that doesn't happen. Lessons are learned though careful analysis of accidents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BOAC_Flight_781

:heart:
Mike

User avatar
mikenz66
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Location: Aotearoa, New Zealand

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by mikenz66 » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:42 pm

Nicholas wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:19 pm
I think I saw this number on CNN this morning - the world number of cases from the CCP virus is now about 10 million people. This number includes deaths and recovered cases, so actual deaths would be even less. Sounds horrid and impressive, right?

The present world population is about 7,800 millions. Ten million = .00128 percent. Hardly a ripple...
If medical resources were sufficient, and/or we were prepared to just let people take their chances, then it's possible to argue for letting it run it's course.

But look at specific locations where it got quite bad. NYC has about 10M People. Here is the data:
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
200K cases (2%) 50k hospitalizations (0.5%), around 18K deaths (0.18%). Those are 0.5% and 0.2%. And that's for a city that has been locked down since mid March. Without the lockdown the hospitals would not have coped, and many more would be dead.

But you're right to bring up the issue. What is acceptable? How do we balance it? Would just letting it run it's course and having, say, 1% of the population die be acceptable?

But it's not necessarily an either/or deaths vs economy thing. Taiwan took steps that allowed it to carry on reasonably normally and hardly anyone died. NYC (and many places in Europe) had both deaths and disruption. Of course, I know there are all kinds of reasons why it would have been difficult for NYC to do it, but if it is possible why not do it? It's not as if Taiwan is anti-capitalist or undemocratic...

:heart:
Mike

Bundokji
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 9:03 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Bundokji » Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:43 am

mikenz66 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:19 pm
Yes, we agree on this. But honesty includes making sure one has as good as possible technical data, not just relying on some hunch that things are not so bad, or so good, or whatever...
Indeed, honesty does not negate the necessity of accurate technical data, but acknowledging the various possibilities of using technical data in ways leading to unwarranted conclusions.
'Too much knowledge leads to scepticism. Early devotees are the likeliest apostates, as early sinners are senile saints.' – Will Durant.

User avatar
Nicholas
Posts: 254
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:07 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Nicholas » Mon Jun 29, 2020 4:42 pm

This site gives daily updates for nations & the planet too. As for perfect accuracy - Buddhas would know, but I doubt any are involved with the site.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
May all seek, find and follow the Path of Buddhas.

Dan74
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Dan74 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:04 pm

Nicholas wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 5:19 pm
I think I saw this number on CNN this morning - the world number of cases from the CCP virus is now about 10 million people. This number includes deaths and recovered cases, so actual deaths would be even less. Sounds horrid and impressive, right?

The present world population is about 7,800 millions. Ten million = .00128 percent. Hardly a ripple...
10 million dead is hardly a ripple, you say... I guess it all depends on the context and the point we are trying to make. The figures themselves can be used to support anything.

BTW, 10 million out of 7800 million is (10/7800)*100 percent, which is 0.128%, so you have two zeroes there too many.

User avatar
mikenz66
Posts: 155
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Location: Aotearoa, New Zealand

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by mikenz66 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:07 pm

Bundokji wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:43 am
mikenz66 wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:19 pm
Yes, we agree on this. But honesty includes making sure one has as good as possible technical data, not just relying on some hunch that things are not so bad, or so good, or whatever...
Indeed, honesty does not negate the necessity of accurate technical data, but acknowledging the various possibilities of using technical data in ways leading to unwarranted conclusions.
Well, yes, and that's something that seems to be hard to get across - that the fact that technical data and predictions are not perfect, and change over time is a feature, not a bug. I keep posting in threads like this to counter illogical conclusions such as:
1. Data and predictions are imperfect, and change with time.
2. Therefore, even though I have no understanding of the technicalities, I am just going to go with my gut feeling.

Good luck with running an organisation with that sort of reasoning. The good leaders I've worked with listen carefully to the alternatives, and make their best effort to make a decision that takes into account the various data and opinions. And if it doesn't work, they are willing to try something else. The hopeless ones just blunder on according to their preconceptions.

:heart:
Mike

User avatar
Nicholas
Posts: 254
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2018 6:07 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Nicholas » Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:41 pm

Ten million was the number of Cases, not deaths. Worldwide death total at present is 507,356. So back to my little app, which says:

507,000 divided by 7,800,000,000 = .000065 - whatever the percentage, it is very tiny.

The point is that plagues arise-karma and deaths-vipaka follow.
May all seek, find and follow the Path of Buddhas.

reiun
Posts: 92
Joined: Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:25 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by reiun » Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:00 pm

Nicholas wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 10:41 pm
Ten million was the number of Cases, not deaths. Worldwide death total at present is 507,356. So back to my little app, which says:

507,000 divided by 7,800,000,000 = .000065 - whatever the percentage, it is very tiny.

The point is that plagues arise-karma and deaths-vipaka follow.
The point seems to be the percentage, while the vipaka is clearly Trumpic.

Dan74
Posts: 90
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:57 pm

Re: Is there a web site that gives the current death rate in daily basis from the flue world wide?

Post by Dan74 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:36 am

It is a complex matter and I would not rush to pin all the blame on Trump. One thing he was definitely wrong about in this recent Fox Town Hall is the death rate. He said it is one of the lowest in the world. In fact it is 7th highest, after Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden and France (I've excluded the micro-states of San Marino and Andorra). So the highest outside Europe.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 37 guests